Introduction
For those of us with longstanding interest in U.S.-Russia relations, the current state of affairs is as distressing as it is alarming…
U.S.-Russia Relations: Critical and Unstable
In October 2014, the Council posted an article titled “Needs Work: A Troubled U.S.-Russia Relationship,” in which we noted somberly that “if there is one point of agreement between pundits in Moscow and Washington these days, it is that U.S.-Russia relations are at a post-Cold War nadir.”
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Newsflash, America: Ukraine Cannot Afford a War with Russia
Arming Ukraine would only fan the flames of tension between the West and Russia, leading the United States into a conflict it doesn’t, and shouldn’t, want.
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Debunked: Why There Won’t Be Another Cold War
In the wake of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, talk of a “New Cold War” is in vogue. Even experts who studied the Soviet Union and Russia from the depths of mutually assured destruction and détente to the fall of Communism now say that it will be decades again before “normal” relations between Russia and the West can resume…
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Why Sanctions on Russia Will Backfire
Even if sanctions succeed in changing the Kremlin’s behavior and are then lifted, the American objective of integrating Russia into the global economy has been fundamentally undermined…
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine | NATO | Putin
Ukraine Deal Could Buy U.S. Time to Formulate Effective Russia Policy
The U.S. should make keeping Ukraine strong and independent of Russia an enduring priority…
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine | NATO | Putin
Russia’s Breakout From the Post-Cold War System: The Drivers of Putin’s Course
The abrupt end of the quarter-of-a-century-long era of cooperation and partnership between Russia and the West, and the return of confrontation and hostility between them, did not come out of the blue…
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine | NATO | Putin
Then and Now: Eight Lingering Questions on U.S.-Russia-Ukraine
Why do we fail to understand that threats do not work with Putin’s Russia?…
U.S. Foreign Policy | NATO | Putin | Ukraine
The West Has Failed to Find a Constructive Role for Moscow
American leadership is indispensable in Europe. Mr. Putin does not take seriously ministrations by European leaders…
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine | NATO | Putin
Facing a Fragile Ceasefire
If the peace deal is not honored, the administration of President Barack Obama will then be under even greater pressure to send lethal weapons to the government in Kiev…
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine | Putin
Is There a Plausible Strategy for the Ukraine Situation?
Like it or not, we are entangled in the Ukraine situation and we need to face the implications unwelcome as they certainly are…
U.S. Foreign Policy | NATO
What the West Can and Should Do For Ukraine
The uncertain implementation of the fragile Minsk 2 cease fire agreement in eastern Ukraine has paused the debate over whether or not to arm Ukraine…
U.S. Foreign Policy
Our Best Hope So Far
The outbreak of renewed sporadic violence is not the biggest or most important looming challenge…
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
No Good Options
Calls to arm Ukraine have helped to galvanize diplomatic efforts to find a solution to the crisis, and over the longer term, the Ukrainian Army will need more weapons and better training, if only to enforce any peace agreement…
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine | EU | NATO
A Diplomatic Halfway House
Unless something new is done, everyone will lose…
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine | NATO
Want to arm Kiev? Better have a Plan B
Arming Ukraine probably would prompt Putin to scale up the war…
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine | Putin
West Must Either Commit to Ukraine or Back Off
Putin has for years been offering a deal in the old realpolitik tradition — let’s draw a line, you run the world on that side, and I’ll run it on this side…
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine | Putin
When threatened, Putin will push back
Everything we know about Putin’s personality says that when he is threatened he will fight harder…
NATO | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine | Putin
Weapons Won’t End the Conflict
What Ukraine needs more than any weapons is greater quantities of professionally trained soldiers…
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Military assistance to Ukraine should be part of broader strategy
Washington should seriously contemplate military assistance as part of a broader strategy for ending the conflict in Ukraine…
U.S. Foreign Policy| Ukraine
Arms likely to spark further escalation
The U.S. ought to have a plan in place for how it will respond to another round of escalation – and a plan that does not involve a constant ratcheting up of military assistance…
U.S. Foreign Policy| Ukraine
Arms support for Ukraine should be contingent on talks
If the goal of the U.S. government is to achieve a lasting peace in eastern Ukraine, it should use its leverage to compel the Ukrainian government to agree to the partitioning of the Donbas…
U.S. Foreign Policy| Ukraine
Arms alone won’t win Ukraine
The effectiveness of that assistance will primarily depend on Kyiv’s ability to use it…
U.S. Foreign Policy| Ukraine
Endangering USA won’t stop Putin
Supplying Kiev with lethal weaponry would endanger U.S. national security interests, while having little chance of stopping Vladimir Putin…
NATO | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
How to Start a Proxy War with Russia
The United States has absolutely no obligations to Ukraine’s security under any type of accord or framework…
NATO | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Appeasement is not an option
A strong signal from the U.S. government is not enough if there is no determination for a subsequent military step…
U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
There Is No Zero-Sum Solution
If the U.S. is unwilling to take real military action, then it should consider a mutually acceptable settlement now …
NATO | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Students Are Political Pawns
Student exchange programs between Russia and the United States are in grave danger…
Opportunity in a Shared Enemy
ISIS has given the United States and Russia a golden opportunity to recommence cooperation…
Don’t Prop up Putin by Giving Him an Enemy
Putin’s actions have gone beyond simply reasserting Russia’s great power status. He is goading the United States to take a more militarized approach to the crisis …
NATO | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
The Guns of Ukrainian August
From a conflict resolution perspective, the question—admittedly very difficult now that the violence has escalated and several thousand civilians, soldiers, and rebels have been killed in Eastern Ukraine—is: can the West go beyond isolating Russia and act together to contain the escalating violence and transform the conflict into constructive dialogue?…
EU | NATO | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Ukraine: Cool the Rhetoric; Focus on the Outcome
Settlement on any terms while fighting continues seems most unlikely, so efforts to stop the fighting and meet the humanitarian needs of the people trapped in combat zones must take priority. Nevertheless, active negotiations to reach an overall settlement must proceed in order to improve the prospects for a cease-fire and the durability of one, if reached…
EU | NATO | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Diverging Visions of Partnership
In short, the West’s idea of partnership was Russia’s absolute acquiescence with all Western policies anywhere in the world, irrespective of the consequences for Russia, along with the total reshaping of Russian society according to a Western model, without any consideration for Russia’s peculiarities, history, and culture…
NATO | Putin | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Maximalist Rhetoric and the Realities of the Region
[E]ven if some in Moscow may dream of a new Soviet Union, that means very little in practical terms since its neighbors have no interest in giving up their political independence…
U.S. Foreign Policy
A Long History of Mistrust
The main assumption underlying Putin’s vision is that the United States, by various ways and means, is set on deceiving Russia. Foremost in that assumption is that the United States destroyed the USSR and constantly seeks to diminish Russia’s global and regional role, all the while attempting to gain access to Russian oil and gas…
NATO | Putin | U.S. Foreign Policy
Nationalism and the Logic of Russian Actions in Ukraine
Putin’s move in Crimea and the subsequent efforts to destabilize eastern Ukraine can be seen as an attempt to overturn the chessboard when the arrangement of pieces is no longer favorable, forcing a new game with different rules…
Putin | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
The Dangers of Inflexibility
The confluence of global crises this summer (Gaza, Ebola, Iraq, etc.) should remind all of us of the fragility of the existing global system and reignite a debate on why the post-1989 bipartisan American foreign policy vision sought to convert as many states as possible into stakeholders…
NATO | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Russia and the New “New World Order”
The West does have to respond to Putin’s seizure of Crimea and threats to the rest of Ukraine, which, among other things, violate the 1975 Helsinki Final Act and the 2004 Budapest Memorandum. The U.S. and its allies have to take military and other steps to reassure anxious allies in Central Europe that NATO membership means what it says…
EU | NATO | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Why Russia Intervenes
No doubt, the cynical brutality of Russian President Vladimir Putin can be infuriating, but the notion that Russia has been behaving in ways that other great powers normally eschew is not borne out by a perusal of the academic literature on international relations and the history of revolutions…
EU | NATO | Putin | Ukraine
Decoding Mixed Messages
The bottom line is that there is a very big difference between the largely peaceful annexation of Crimea with its economy intact, and fighting a major war to win the privilege of investing tens of billions of dollars or more in eastern Ukraine…
China | NATO | Putin | Sanctions | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Why the U.S. Should Keep Cooperating with Russia on Nuclear Security
Over the past 20-plus years, along with our Russian colleagues, we have found that at times we must move beyond political disagreements such the political situation in Ukraine, to work together to advance the cause of nuclear security…
U.S. Foreign Policy
NATO Enlargement 20 Years Later
One hot war (Georgia), one covert war (Ukraine), two de facto annexations (South Ossetia and Abkhazia) and one de jure annexation (Crimea) later, Russia has made it clear that it intends to keep NATO out of its neighborhood…
NATO | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Life Sciences Can Transcend Political Animosities
Now is the time to take advantage of the respect that the leadership of Russia has for American achievements in science and technology and for the strength and diversity of the higher education establishment in the United States…
U.S. Foreign Policy
Personalization and Patriotism
[For Russian leaders] colored revolutions are a new form of warfare invented by Western governments seeking to remove independently-minded national governments in favor of ones that are controlled by the West…
NATO | Putin | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Lessons Learned and Not Learned
It is one thing to voice official support for Ukrainian participation in the European Association Agreement. It is another entirely for U.S. diplomats to distribute tea and cookies on the central square to participants of a popular uprising to replace the government…
Putin | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
A Russia Problem, Not a Putin Problem
[Putin’s] anti-Westernism does not mark an absolute rejection of the West and its values…
EU | Putin | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Help Build Markets in Russia and the Region
Market forces will be more effective than sanctions in influencing Putin’s behavior, and there is already ample evidence that markets are extracting their price in terms of a weakened ruble, falling foreign exchange reserves, capital flight, and reduced growth…
EU | Putin | Sanctions | U.S. Foreign Policy
Ukraine-Russia: Is There a Way Out?
Western leaders cannot negotiate over the Ukrainians’ head, but they can counsel Mr. Putin to change course. The most likely interlocutor for the Russian president is German Chancellor Angela Merkel…
EU | NATO | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
It’s All About Ukraine
To understand why Putin and his fellow Russians feel compelled to intervene in Ukraine, you must understand that the crisis in that country began from the deep anger of all strata of Ukrainian society toward the corrupt, incompetent, and increasingly authoritarian regime of former President Viktor Yanukovych…
EU | Putin | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
The Shock of Unintended Consequences
President Obama is under siege on so many fronts, his Russia policy enjoys what could almost be called bipartisan support in comparison to his attempts to deal with the Middle East and most domestic issues…
Putin | U.S. Foreign Policy
Driven by Domestic Politics
In just a few months, the Kremlin’s actions have: energized NATO to boost defenses around Russia’s borders; failed to avert (and maybe sped up) EU partnership agreements with Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia; and blackened Russia’s image around the world…
China | NATO | Putin | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
A Moral and Strategic Calamity
It is not in the long term interest of the United States to try to isolate the Russian economy or to degrade its productive development. It is decisively against the interest of the United States to stimulate corruption. That is already a massive problem in Ukraine and not a trivial problem in Russia…
NATO | Putin | Sanctions | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
A Tale of Two Russian Narratives
If the goal was to keep Ukraine out of the “new look” NATO, it has certainly succeeded in bringing back elements of the “old look” NATO with calls to increase the NATO presence in member countries near Russia…
NATO | Putin | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Brussels and Beijing
Given that U.S. policy for the last four decades has been predicated on encouraging some degree of distance between Moscow and Beijing, does a closer Russia-China entente create new and unanticipated problems for the U.S.?…
China | Putin | U.S. Foreign Policy | Ukraine
Behind Russia’s “Propaganda Bullhorn”
The temptation is to dismiss everything emanating from the Kremlin and in the Russian press as, as Secretary of State John Kerry has put it, stemming from ”a propaganda bullhorn” reflecting “a fantasy.” This would be a mistake…